Is Escalation Inevitable in the Middle East?
I’m just a few weeks away from packing up and relocating to the UAE (albeit temporarily), insha-Allah, and with every news headline I read, I can’t help but wonder whether the region is a powder keg.
This morning, I watched a video of Professor John Mearsheimer’s recent address to the Middle East Council on Global Affairs:
In his speech, Professor Mearsheimer explains:
How the world has moved from a bipolar world order (two great powers: USSR and US) to unipolar (US calling the shots) to multipolar (US, China and Russia). As he points out, most of us have grown up in the unipolar moment, but times have already changed - even if many people are still oblivious.
The US has three key areas of focus: East Asia (Chinese threat), Europe (Russian threat), and the Persian Gulf (oil). Ideally for the US, there'd be peace in Europe and the Persian Gulf, so they could focus on containing the Chinese threat. However, it’s bogged down in the Ukraine/ Russia war and, due to its unparalleled relationship with Israel, is also being dragged back into the Middle East.
The US has, through its actions, driven Russia, China, Iran and North Korea together into one bloc. An opposing bloc is the US, Israel and Europe. As Mearsheimer puts it, these two blocs "are at each other's throats."
He then goes on to discuss the Middle East and how, despite what the West may say, Iran is not the one causing all the trouble in the region (it's Israel). He gives a brief analysis of the three major conflicts in the Middle East: Genocide in Gaza, Israel vs Hezbollah, Israel+US vs Iran.
Suffice it to say that the picture he paints of the future is far from rosy, particularly for our brothers and sisters in Palestine, with escalating conflicts that will play out for years to come.
As the West grapples with economic decline, soaring living costs, and growing social polarisation, it’s no surprise that internal conflicts and Islamophobia are on the rise. It’s a stark contrast to what my immigrant parents had hoped would be a land of opportunity, prosperity and safety.
That being said, my mother (may Allah have mercy on her) would constantly warn me and my siblings not to get too comfortable in the UK as society could turn against us (Muslims/immigrants) at any time. She’d always encourage us to have a Plan B; for her, that meant keeping a fallback option open in Bangladesh.
And now, as I prepare to relocate, I can’t help but ask myself: is there anywhere left that feels safe, secure, and stable enough to raise a family?
I don’t know the answer to that question. But it does seem like times are going to get much tougher, and we should prepare ourselves and our families practically and spiritually for what lies ahead.
If our children have been fortunate enough to grow up in the lap of comfort and relative luxury, perhaps it’s time to toughen them up so they are better equipped to deal with difficult times? Whether that’s physically through sports or martial arts, or by letting them experience some challenges/difficulties and teaching them the Islamic principles of du’a and tawakkul, as well as resilience, problem-solving, and the importance of perseverance.
And we should all be working on strengthening our iman. After all, life is a series of tests, and preparing spiritually – through increased du'a, gratitude, salah, and staying close to the Qur'an – will be our greatest shield when the tough times hit.
Though the world may be shifting under our feet, our Islam will give us a strong foothold.
يَا مُقَلِّبَ الْقُلُوبِ ثَبِّتْ قَلْبِى عَلَى دِينِكَ
”Oh Turner of the Hearts (Allah), keep my heart firm on your religion.”
How are you preparing your family for the times ahead? Are you considering relocating to another country? I’d love to hear from you.
Your brother,
Hanif